Economists predict that the freight industry could soon face the biggest capacity purge in trucking. Approximately 600,000 drivers could soon be removed from domestic shipping in the US. The FTR Transportation Intelligence noted that net operating authorities have declined nearly every week since 2022. Freight volumes have also dropped, showing an 18% decline year-over-year. If this trend continues, industry players believe that spot rates may fall to coronavirus pandemic-like levels. Issues like a trade war, changes in industry regulations, higher costs, and lower demand have all contributed to the purge. With the freight industry potentially facing a rough period ahead, carriers and shippers could soon feel the impact.
How Would The Freight Industry Face The Biggest Capacity Purge In Trucking?
Many converging factors, including a change in US immigration policy and English language standards, contribute to the potential purge. The FMSCA (Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration) recently announced a law restricting the issuing and renewal of non-domiciled CDLs. Non-domicile CDLs (Commercial Driver’s Licenses) are given to drivers who are neither a US citizen nor a permanent US resident. The new law will reportedly restrict 97% of the roughly 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders from following the requirements. In turn, this will result in nearly 5% of all registered CDLs exiting the industry in the next few years. Another contributor to the capacity purge has been the stricter enforcement of ELP (English Language Proficiency) standards.
In June 2025, President Trump signed an ELP mandate requiring truckers to demonstrate English proficiency. Failure to meet the standards will result in an out-of-service violation for drivers. Since the signing, enforcement of ELP regulations has resulted in over 23,000 violations and over 5,000 out-of-service violations. Analysts predict that the enforcement could remove nearly 20,000 drivers annually. Other causes contributing to the purge are decreased freight to move domestically. During the coronavirus pandemic, the demand to move cargo by truck reached unprecedented levels. To meet the demand, a record number of truckers entered the industry. As the demand began to decline, the number of drivers remained, resulting in overcapacity and a current drop in drivers.
What Could The Purge Mean For Shippers?
When a significant number of carriers rapidly exit the industry, it can directly affect the shipper. Fewer carrier options could result in higher transportation costs for the shipper. The rising costs could be felt in different supply chain parts, including the customer. If demand doesn’t rebound, the larger carrier companies may struggle. Trump’s tariffs on imports could also add to the decline in drivers by further raising costs. Despite the disruptions the purge may cause, many believe it’s more of an industry reset, leading to a more balanced environment with healthier freight rates.
While a capacity purge may seem alarming, it should not stop the shipper from moving goods by truck. However, you should take the appropriate steps to prevent delays and monetary loss. Along with being current with the news, an ideal way to prepare when shipping is to contact a freight broker. Brokers are the middlemen between shippers and carriers and coordinate freight transport on behalf of the shipper. Along with transporting goods, they offer services like providing documentation, finding rates, consultation, and more. A1 Freight Solutions has brokers and other solutions to ensure your shipment’s success. For a quote to move your cargo domestically, contact our brokers at info@a1fsinc.com or 786-376-9420.